Category Archives: Uncategorized

Unemployment is down again but we shouldn’t be complacent

THE IRISH ECONOMY continued to create jobs at a rate of more than 1,000 per week in the three months immediately following June’s shock Brexit vote, defying some of the most pessimistic predictions about the short-term impact.

According to Tuesday’s figures from the Central Statistics Office, 57,500 jobs were created this year to the end of September, signalling robust annual job growth of 2.9%.

The pace of job growth moderated slightly to a seasonally adjusted 13,500 during the most recent three month period, down from 18,900 and 16,100 in each of the first two quarters of the year, respectively. This brought the total number employed to 2,040,500, the highest since the end of 2008, although still 6% below the all-time high of 2,169,600, reached in Q3 2007.

*** This article was first published on thejournal.ie on 23 November, 2016 *** Continue reading

Escape Velocity

Nearly three years after losing access to the sovereign bond market, Ireland appears to have built sufficient momentum to escape the troika’s orbit. Come early 2014, the country will no longer be subject to its quarterly visits and binding targets. The government will have succeeded in its number one political objective: ‘regaining our economic sovereignty’. But, what will really change?

When Ireland was first bailed out, I and many others thought it unlikely that the country could succeed in regaining market access by end-2013. In mid-2011, with interest rates on Irish government bonds soaring into double digits, such a benign scenario looked ever more remote.

Then, things changed. Increasingly, Ireland came to be seen as a special case, different from the struggling ‘Club Med’ countries. Irish bond yields fell dramatically, decoupling from those of Greece and Portugal. New ECB President Mario Draghi signalled that he was willing to do ‘whatever it takes’ save the Euro. Ben Bernanke, his American counterpart, kept the printing presses running, doubling down on his so-called ‘quantitative easing’ experiment. No doubt, this ‘easy money’ helped Ireland’s cause. High profile financiers made multi-billion euro bets on Ireland’s recovery story, and are already sitting on massive paper profits. The Irish banks also got in on the act, racking up significant holdings of Irish bonds rather than lending to businesses or households. Internally, economic pain may be manifest, but externally the mood music has been mostly positive. Continue reading

Ireland’s Investment Crisis: Diagnosis and Prescription

I have written in the past about Ireland’s deepening investment crisis. Last week’s CSO figures for Q1 2013 showed that investment had fallen 20% compared to the same quarter in 2012 while the investment rate had fallen to 9.7% of GDP. Here is a paper I wrote on the subject, recently published by the Nevin Economic Research Institute.

In short, a national investment bank focused on infrastructure and SME financing has never been more necessary.

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Happy Holidays!

Wishing a merry Christmas and prosperous 2013 to all my readers !!

New Directions

Well, it’s been a busy month… between graduating from Columbia, visiting Ireland, holidaying in Spain, moving to Indonesia, and starting work with the World Bank.

That largely explains my lack of blog activity of late, something I hope to rectify in the coming days and weeks.

Meanwhile, I’m settling into life in Jakarta, a sprawling, bustling, booming metropolis that epitomizes ‘up by the bootstraps’ development in emerging Asia. The fourth most populated country in the world, Indonesia has been Asia’s sleeping giant, but partly driven by a commodities boom, it is rapidly rising to take its place beside China and India.

At the World Bank, I am working on two projects: one on the impact of FDI in the services sector on economic productivity, and the other on trade logistics, notably issues relating to Jakarta’s port facilities. At a time when much of the developed world is mired in economic stagnation, it is fascinating to be exposed to economic policy issues in a rapidly rising emerging nation.

A Great Little Documentary on Financial Instability

The Boom-Bust Life Cycle of Ireland’s Balance of Payments and Net Foreign Assets

 

 

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