The IMF recently published its updated outlook for the global economy. The good news is that recovery from the crisis seems to be finally picking up some momentum after a decade of sub-par growth. The bad news, as they see it, is that this momentum could be stopped in its tracks if the sword of Damocles that is the threat of protectionism – whether emanating from Trump’s White House, May’s Westminister or elsewhere – falls. This could throw the process of globalisation into reverse, they worry, and slow growth in the size of the economic pie.
Alongside their biannual economic forecasts, the IMF also publishes its latest thinking on various themes. In light of increased focus on the issue of inequality since the global financial crisis, to which the recent rise in political populism has been attributed, the IMF provides a timely chapter on “Understanding the downward trend in labour income shares”. It explores the reasons why the share of wages in GDP has declined markedly – in advanced, emerging and developing economies alike – in recent decades. Between the mid-1970s and its 2006 low, the labour share has declined from around 55% of GDP to around 50% in advanced economies, before recovering only slightly since the financial crisis, while income inequality has increased significantly over the same period.
As far back as 1516, Thomas More first suggested a guaranteed income as a way to reduce theft. In 1797, enlightenment thinker Thomas Paine proposed a set of radical reforms in his seminal pamphlet on Agrarian Justice.Among these proposals was the idea of a universal basic income that would be paid to everyone, unconditionally. In the intervening 220 years, polemicists and policymakers have toyed with the idea, without it ever really catching on.
What has changed?
First it was Brexit. Then it was Trump. Twice in recent months, we have awoken to news from across the water that shook us to our core. Something has gone ‘Br-ump’ in the night.
For Ireland, the biggest impact of Brexit and Trump’s ascendancy are likely to be economic. Even if recent decades have seen Ireland Inc. diversify its economic ties, the UK and US are still by far our most important trade and foreign direct investment partners. Directly or indirectly, hundreds of thousands of Irish jobs depend on these countries’ fortunes and policies. The temptation will be for Irish policymakers to adopt a reactive stance, but this needs to be complemented by a proactive and comprehensive approach.
As a tiny, very open economy, Ireland has surfed the wave of neoliberal globalisation more deftly than most, making the most of our geographic and cultural proximity to the US and the UK, in particular. For decades, for better or worse, we have been ‘all in’ on an economic strategy aimed at grabbing a slice of the global economic pie. As a result, there is perhaps no other country as uniquely exposed to the twin ‘Br-ump’ challenges.
The Irish people deserve better.
This is the not unreasonable thrust of ICTU’s pre-budget submission for 2017.
People deserve better than the five-in-a-row inequality-increasing budgets they were subjected under the previous Fine Gael-led government.
People deserve more investment in the health, education and welfare services on which they depend: more hospital beds, more special needs assistants, more home care packages. These can make a real and positive improvement in people’s immediate living standards, while reducing reliance on the sort of spending that becomes necessary when such early interventions have been in short supply. Home care packages are a prime example. For a relatively small outlay, people can be helped to live a full life in their homes and in their communities, as they grow older, rather than being carted off to a more expensive hospital or nursing home.
The country also urgently needs to ramp up its capital spending programme to address the housing crisis and plug the most critical infrastructure gaps that are holding our economy back. The Action Plan for Housing and Homelessness is clearly welcome, but it’s a case of too little too late. The housing crisis has been brewing for years as the dysfunctional rental and owner-occupier property markets have been allowed to fester. The Plan’s social housing target of 5,000 new builds per year by 2021 – from next to zero currently – lacks ambition in the face of the scale of the emergency. More generally, capital spending has been cut to the bone since 2008. Under-investment in public transport, rural broadband, flood defence, waste management and water infrastructure reduce living standards today while imposing constraints on future economic growth.
So, the British people have spoken. Brexit it is.
Acres of newsprint have been taken up since the vote of 23 June speculating on what it all means. In a nod to the summer’s big cinematic blockbuster, the date has been proclaimed by some erstwhile Leave campaigners as the UK’s ‘Independence Day’.
But, while the people may have voted, uncertainty reigns. Nobody truly knows what it means, what will happen, or when.
Scottish independence. The fate of the border dividing Ireland. The financial future of the City of London. The extrication of a country from the mass of European legal, regulatory and constitutional fabric. The future of the European project itself. Era-defining challenges lie ahead not only for the UK and its four constituent nations, but for the entire European political class.
More than most, Ireland has skin in the game. But, rather than speculating on some of the bigger existential questions, this column focuses narrowly on the prospects for economic relations between the North and South of our island.
More than ever, what we learn is key to what we earn. In today’s economy, having the right skills is critical to getting and keeping a job, and to getting on in your career. Across the OECD, a person with a third level qualification can expect to earn about 50% more than someone without one. This ‘education premium’ is even larger in Ireland.
At the same time, the unemployment rate of those aged 25-64 is about 13 percentage points higher in Ireland for those who didn’t complete the Leaving Cert – one of the biggest such disparities in the OECD. As important as degrees and qualifications are the social and emotional skills necessary to thrive in modern society.
As I have written previously in these pages, investing in education and skills – together with ‘womenomics’, ‘more and better jobs’ and redistribution – are part of a ‘core four’ policy pillars of stronger, fairer Irish economy.
A solid education can be a great social leveller, but people from less well-off backgrounds face bigger barriers, financial and otherwise, in seizing its opportunity. Not only is the education and skills gap a key driver of inequality, but the effect can be self-reinforcing. So, while the distance between the rungs of the social ladder have grown, so social mobility has declined, individual potential has gone to waste through un-or-under-employment and productivity growth has lagged. All this means that society as whole ends up worse off.
There’s no doubt about it: Ireland’s economy is absolutely flying. Being honest, the bounce-back has been stronger than many of us would have dared dream during the dark days of 2009-2011.
Sure, the amount of stuff Ireland produces every year may be growing at a faster clip than China. But while the economic recovery has been going from strength to strength, the social and rural recoveries still lag behind.
That’s why the looming election is so important. It’s not just about ‘securing the (economic) recovery’, but about making sure everyone gets to share in this renewed prosperity. It means spreading the benefits to every town and village across the country. And, it means doing more to raise the living standards of those no longer young or able enough to work. It also means getting more people into jobs and making sure fewer kids grow up in poverty or in a house without a working parent to lead by example. It’s about electing people that can make progressive change happen – not more hurlers on the ditch.
Crucially, we need to keep the jobs recovery going. Creating more and better jobs will be key to keep unemployment falling, to accelerate the rise in wages, and to make sure every worker has the right to be represented by a recognised trade union. It’s also a ‘win win’ way to reduce inequality.