Monthly Archives: November 2016

Unemployment is down again but we shouldn’t be complacent

THE IRISH ECONOMY continued to create jobs at a rate of more than 1,000 per week in the three months immediately following June’s shock Brexit vote, defying some of the most pessimistic predictions about the short-term impact.

According to Tuesday’s figures from the Central Statistics Office, 57,500 jobs were created this year to the end of September, signalling robust annual job growth of 2.9%.

The pace of job growth moderated slightly to a seasonally adjusted 13,500 during the most recent three month period, down from 18,900 and 16,100 in each of the first two quarters of the year, respectively. This brought the total number employed to 2,040,500, the highest since the end of 2008, although still 6% below the all-time high of 2,169,600, reached in Q3 2007.

*** This article was first published on thejournal.ie on 23 November, 2016 *** Continue reading

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Something went Br-ump in the night

First it was Brexit. Then it was Trump. Twice in recent months, we have awoken to news from across the water that shook us to our core. Something has gone ‘Br-ump’ in the night.

For Ireland, the biggest impact of Brexit and Trump’s ascendancy are likely to be economic. Even if recent decades have seen Ireland Inc. diversify its economic ties, the UK and US are still by far our most important trade and foreign direct investment partners. Directly or indirectly, hundreds of thousands of Irish jobs depend on these countries’ fortunes and policies. The temptation will be for Irish policymakers to adopt a reactive stance, but this needs to be complemented by a proactive and comprehensive approach.

As a tiny, very open economy, Ireland has surfed the wave of neoliberal globalisation more deftly than most, making the most of our geographic and cultural proximity to the US and the UK, in particular. For decades, for better or worse, we have been ‘all in’ on an economic strategy aimed at grabbing a slice of the global economic pie. As a result, there is perhaps no other country as uniquely exposed to the twin ‘Br-ump’ challenges.

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Latest Exchequer Returns Flatter to Deceive

The latest Exchequer returns, released yesterday evening, show total tax receipts were €36.7 billion for the first ten months of the year, 1.7% ahead of target, and 4.7% ahead of the same period in 2015. Overall, the deficit between day-to-day tax and spending continued to narrow, falling from €2.9 billion for the first ten months of 2015 to €1.9 billion for the same period this year.

Corporation tax was €177 million ahead of target in October alone, and is now €821 million ahead for the year, more than one-fifth higher than Department of Finance officials had estimated earlier this year. At €4,778 million, corporate tax receipts for the year to date are on a par with the same period in 2015, being only marginally (€30m) ahead.

These numbers suggest continued strong profitability in the multinational sector, not least due to the large number of big firms relocating to Ireland for tax reasons in recent years. These are the so-called corporate tax inversions, which not only boost the state’s coffers but make it more difficult to accurately forecast this increasingly important revenue source. While these extra revenues are a boon to the Exchequer, their long-term sustainability is questionable in light of ongoing and future changes to national, European and global tax regimes for corporate profits.

*** This article was first published on thejournal.ie on 3 November, 2016 ***

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